IFRI research. russia’s military. European Union. russian economy

russian propagandists are constantly trying to create the illusion that the russian army is invincible, that russia is a superpower with which it is better not to argue, and the struggle against it is useless. This time it is about the IFRI research, which does not contain statements about the general military domination of the russian Federation. In the primary sources, it is only about certain structural advantages of russia in the land war, while the main conclusion of IFRI is about the need to strengthen European defense, not the “recognition” of the EU weakness.

Pro-russian Telegram channels distribute publications that “in France, they recognized russia’s military superiority over the countries of the European Union”. As “proof” the authors of the fake mention interviews of three analysts of the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI) for the newspaper Le Monde. These publications argue that the European Union supposedly lags significantly behind moscow in the military sphere, and russia has "a decisive advantage in mass, fire power and mobilization capacity". 
In fact, kremlin propagandists once again manipulate the conclusions of the Western study, turning the analysis of the balance of power between Europe and russia into a more profitable for the kremlin “official recognition” by France of the EU weakness. For their publications, they only snatched out the separate theses and wording that fit into their narrative about the “mightiness” of russia, completely ignoring the rest of the context. 
The IFRI study, entitled Europe-Russie: évaluation des rapports de Force, assesses the balance of power between Europe and russia by 2030 and formulates recommendations for strengthening European deterrence: https://www.ifri.org/fr/etudes/europe-russie-evaluation-des-rapports-de-force In fact, neither Le Monde's article nor the IFRI report contain statements that russia generally has a military advantage over the European Union. Experts speak only about the specific structural advantage of russia in a certain area – the ability to wage a protracted land war on exhaustion. russia as an autocratic state can mobilize more human and material resources and suffer longer losses, and also retains a significant supply of artillery and missiles. This is what is stated in the interview as "a decisive advantage in mass, fire power and mobilization ability". 
Propaganda channels replace this narrow and specific assessment by a simplified formula about "preserving significant military advantage over EU countries" and create the impression of total advantage of russia in all spheres. 
At the same time, from the text of Le Monde and from the IFRI report completely disappear mention of the strengths of Europe. Experts emphasize that European armies have a qualitative advantage in the preparation, management, tactics of interaction of the troops, and with sufficient investments Europe has serious advantages in air, maritime and space dimensions, as well as the potential for the development of air and missile defense. The study separately states that the total economic and technological base of the EU significantly exceeds russian, and the main problem of Europe is not the possibility, but the speed of decision-making, fragmentation of the defense industry and insufficient increase of arms production after the beginning of a full-scale war. In propaganda transfer, all these conclusions are replaced by a simple scheme: “Europe is lagging, russia is ahead”.
Another distortion concerns the description of the russian military-industrial potential. The propaganda post states that russia "actively increases the production of cruise and ballistic missiles", which allegedly indicates "further strengthening its military power". However, in interviews and reports, this growth is described as an element of the economy’s transfer to military rails, and at the same time serious restrictions are directly indicated: exhaustion of Soviet armored vehicles, dependence on imports of technologies and components, vulnerability to sanctions and long-term negative consequences of militarization for the russian economy. That is, analysts warn that such mobilization has a strategic risk and economically undermines the country in the long term. 
It is the IFRI research that is also not a statement of "defeat of Europe", but an analysis and warning. The authors assess how the situation can develop by 2030, depending on whether Europe will support Ukraine, whether it will be able to strengthen conventional deterrence and overcome internal fragmentation. One of the key conclusions is that the risk of direct confrontation with russia will increase if Ukraine’s resistance is weakened and if NATO cannot maintain political and military cohesion. 
In this context, the report is not “recognition of weakness”, but a call to accelerate efforts: to increase ammunition production, strengthen air defense, develop military infrastructure and deepen coordination between European countries and the United States. That is, it is about the need to strengthen European defense, and the armed forces of Ukraine, in particular, not that “everything has already been lost”. 
Based on materials from Stopfake.org
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